Semi-Chaotic Financial Series and Neural Network Forecasting: Evidence from European Stock Markets


Costas Siriopulos, Raphael Markellos




This study examines time series from five European Stock Markets (UK. Germany, Belgium, Spain and Greece). Based on empirical evidence concerning nonlinear dependence, long-term memory effects and low-dimensional chaos, we assess the predictability of the series and determine the appropriate parameters for neural network modeling. We apply artificial neural network forecasting data sets from the semi-chaotic Greek Stock Exchange and utilize the outputs in the construction of a trading system. It is found that the neural network trading system performs significantly above random chance and other investment strategies.