Kragujevac J. Math. 22 (2000) 21-31.

STATISTICAL MODELS FOR ANALYSING

CRIMINAL CAREERS

M. O. Ojo

Department of Mathematics, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ife-Ife, Nigeria

(Received June 17, 1999)

ABSTRACT. The main purpose of this paper is to present and discuss the analytical tools that will be necessary to carry forward research in criminal careers. In an earlier model that was used to analyses some crime data (Ojo [4]), the rate of offending or arrest g, say, of individual criminals, was taken as a constant, which can be regarded as over simplification. This model and other similar basic models in this context are extended in this paper, first, to reflect variations in g across the explanatory variables, x (such as age, drug use, previous convictions, etc.), then to reflect variations in g over time within a criminal career and finally, to take into account both changes in g over time and variations across x.