The Impact of Aging on Urban Housing Demand Based on CGE

Zhu Linlin, Li Xiuting, Dong Jichang

The population of China has been aging quickly in recent years, which will profoundly affect the housing market. This paper aims to analyze the effect of aging on urban housing demand. First, a general equilibrium model with an overlapping generation structure is established to analyze theoretically the effect of aging. Then, this paper uses GAMS software to simulate and forecast the change trend in urban housing demand. Finally, based on the research sample of 287 large and medium-sized cities in China in 2010, this paper uses ArcGis 9.3 software to study empirically the influence of aging on urban housing demand and concludes that aging can increase urban housing demand.