Interval-valued fuzzy cognitive maps with genetic learning for predicting corporate financial distress


Petr Hajek, Ondrej Prochazka




Fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) integrate neural networks and fuzzy logic to model complex non-linear problems through causal reasoning. Interval-valued FCMs (IVFCMs) have recently been proposed to model additional uncertainty in decision-making tasks with complex causal relationships. In traditional FCMs, optimization algorithms are used to learn the strengths of the relationships from the data. Here, we propose a novel IVFCM with real-coded genetic learning. We demonstrate that the proposed method is effective for predicting corporate financial distress based on causally connected financial concepts. Specifically , we show that this method outperforms FCMs, fuzzy grey cognitive maps and adaptive neuro-fuzzy systems in terms of root mean squared error,